Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
